Tools for Innovators: Gain clarity with a theory of change
There’s a legendary story in international development circles about a campaign to get mosquito nets to millions of people in countries being ravaged by malaria, a disease that kills more than 600,000 people a year. Mosquito nets are a proven strategy to prevent this deadly disease. A lot of effort and resources went into the research and then into designing a way to distribute nets to hard-to-reach communities. Millions of nets were distributed, a seemingly huge success. Until researchers visited some of the communities to follow up. Turns out mosquito nets can double as fishing nets. In some fisher communities, people used the nets in support of their livelihoods—which felt more urgent to them—rather than malaria prevention. Besides preventing the intended health impacts of the initiative, this result caused further harm because mosquito nets are treated with chemicals that then entered the sea and started killing the fish that these communities relied on for their livelihoods.
One can glean many lessons from this story, most importantly that designing initiatives for people rather than with them is not only ethically problematic, it's also a good way to guarantee failure. The experience also shows that even when we're not acting only out of good intentions, even when we have devoted significant research and resources to finding a good solution, we can still have blind spots.
A theory of change helps provide clarity. You articulate your intended impact from an intervention, show how you expect the intervention to lead to that impact, and illuminate the assumptions (potential blind spots) along that path. It's like showing your work in a math or logic problem.
If you've experimented with other tools in our series like the impact hypothesis and articulating your so what, you're already well on your way to creating a theory of change. Theories of change can be super sophisticated for complex initiatives, but they also don't need to be. Here is a simple structure to use for your program or ministry using a very simplified version of the malaria initiative as an example:
What is the long-term change we hope to create in the world/our community?
No more deaths from the preventable disease of malaria. Yay!
What are measurable outcomes from our work that would show progress toward that change?
In communities where we operate, malaria death rates decline.
What concrete outputs from our work will create those outcomes?
More people using mosquito nets.
What activities will be required to get to those outputs?
Mass produce mosquito nets.
Engage community-based organizations to distribute nets.
What assumptions underlie our logic that these activities will create these outputs, that these outputs will create these outcomes, and that these outcomes will create this impact?
Assumes nets are sufficient to rid the world of malaria.
Assumes that if we get the nets to people, they will know how to use them and will, in fact, use them.
Assumes that people will prioritize preventing possible death from malaria over any other potential uses they might have for the nets.
Assumes that communities will have a way to fix or replace ripped nets.
Just to name a few. What other assumptions do you see?
Now try it with your own program, initiative, ministry. If you can answer these questions, you have your theory of change. Get input from colleagues, clients, community members. Build ways to test your assumptions. Keep revisiting and refining your theory of change as you learn more from the actual work.
A theory of change will not only help you design your work more effectively. It will also allow you to tell a compelling story to potential supporters. Better yet, you can tell the real stories of real people that show your theory of change in action.
For more resources on creating a theory of change and examples, check out these at NPC or Prosper Strategies.
Tools for Innovators is our series to share techniques that will build your confidence and capacity to innovate.
Photo by Fachrizal Maulana on Unsplash