Tools for Innovators: Create an Impact Hypothesis

Focusing on impact sometimes makes people in the faith sector uncomfortable, but when building an organization, initiative, program, or enterprise with the goal of social change, social impact is the reason for its existence. There's a temptation to say, "It's not all about impact… we build relationships, and relationships matter." That’s true, and we can ask why do those relationships matter? That's the impact. We also might say, "It's important to be in solidarity with people, to show up even when it doesn't make a difference." Indeed, solidarity matters, and it has an impact.

Too often, we do something because it seems like a good idea. We owe it to ourselves (if we're going to be investing our time), and especially to those most affected by the issues we seek to address, to ensure our initiative goes beyond good intention. Not least because unexamined intentions can sometimes cause more harm than good.

Here's a simple exercise to try - create an impact hypothesis. Grab some colleagues or community members if you can. Set aside any existing vision statements, mission statements, project proposals, whatever your website says, etc. Try filling in the following based on something you already do or something you're thinking about doing:

Part 1

If we ______________ [what you do/plan to do, your intervention],

then  _____________________ [the resulting behavior, output, action].

Part 2

If ______________________ [the resulting behavior, output, action from part 1],

then ________________________ [the resulting impact].

Here is an example:

If we provide after-school tutoring for students in low-income communities, they will improve their academic performance.

If they improve their academic performance, their economic prospects will improve.

Note that there will be a lot of assumptions in your impact hypothesis that will have to be examined if you're serious about this impact thing. The above example, for instance, takes a lot for granted – economic prospects are correlated to academic outcomes, kids just need extra support to achieve better academic outcomes, etc. – assumptions that may or may not be correct. And that's just it, this is a hypothesis. Calling it such acknowledges that you don't know if it's true until you test it. Which means you have to test it. Which means you're now serious about this impact thing. Congrats!

Here's another example:

If we create inclusive spaces for relationship-building in our community, neighbors will build trust with each other.

If neighbors build trust, they will be able to more effectively address community challenges together.

Can you spot the assumptions in this one that will need to be tested?

This exercise is adapted from an Acumen+ course on Social Impact Analysis. The course is a great resource. It will walk you through impact hypothesis and then into social impact models and theory of change development and more. So if you're really serious, which we hope you are, take the course. It's free!


Tools for Innovators is our new series to share techniques that will build your confidence and capacity to innovate.

Photo by Laurin Steffens on Unsplash

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